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U.S. Strike Against Iran Likely Within Weeks as Protests Rage and Iraqi Deadlock Deepens

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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • L’ayatollah Ali Khamenei lors d’un discours, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026, sur une photo diffusée par le bureau du Guide suprême iranien.KHAMENEI.IR/AFP
    L’ayatollah Ali Khamenei lors d’un discours, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026, sur une photo diffusée par le bureau du Guide suprême iranien.KHAMENEI.IR/AFP
    Image: Le Monde
    L’ayatollah Ali Khamenei lors d’un discours, à Téhéran, le 17 février 2026, sur une photo diffusée par le bureau du Guide suprême iranien.KHAMENEI.IR/AFP (KHAMENEI.IR/AFP) Source Full size

High Probability of U.S.-Israel Joint Strike A senior Trump adviser told Axios the United States faces a 90 percent chance of launching a massive U.S.–Israeli campaign against Tehran within weeks, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group has already moved into the region [3]. Ross Harrison of the Middle East Institute argues that American attacks on Iran have become unavoidable, describing a “flash‑intervention” model as unrealistic and noting the regime’s entrenched structures would survive even the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [1].

Nationwide Iranian Protests Continue Despite Crackdown On Feb 18 anti‑regime demonstrations erupted in five provinces, with six memorial gatherings marking the end of a 40‑day mourning period and security forces deploying tear‑gas and mass arrests [3]. Human‑rights monitors estimate at least 7,000 protesters have been killed and over 50,000 detained since the movement began, while the Iranian Teachers Union staged a nationwide strike [3].

American Public Strongly Opposes New Iran Military Action Recent polls show 42 % of U.S. adults oppose missile strikes on Iran, while 70 % say the United States should not intervene even if protesters are killed [2]. Fear of escalation is high: 71 % believe strikes would provoke Iranian attacks, and 79 % are at least “somewhat” worried about Iran targeting U.S. civilians [2]. These sentiments contrast with Trump’s January red‑line warning and his hint that a decision could be made within ten days, possibly this weekend [2].

Iran Reinforces Nuclear Facilities After 2025 Twelve-Day War Tehran has covered the Taleghan 2 site at Parchin with soil after encasing it in a concrete sarcophagus, and similar fortifications are under way at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the Kolang Gaz La complex [3][1]. Iranian leaders cite the June 2025 Israeli‑U.S. “twelve‑day war” on nuclear and military sites as a lesson that informs their current defensive posture [1].

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Primary Data (2)

Quinnipac: Voters 51 – 42 Percent Oppose U.S. Joining Israel In Military Strikes On Iran’S Nuclear Sites, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Vast Majority Concerned U.S. Will Get Drawn Into A War With Iran

Published (5 tables/charts)

  • 21. Thinking about the relationship between the United States and Israel, do you think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, not supportive enough of Israel, or is the U.S. support of Israel about right?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Too supportive 42% 15% 63% 47% 42% 42%
    Not enough 5 6 3 9 3 7
    About right 45 75 21 38 49 40
    DK/NA 8 4 13 5 5 10
    Source

  • 22. Do you support or oppose Israel's military strikes against nuclear and military sites inside Iran?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Support 50% 80% 25% 46% 54% 46%
    Oppose 40 15 60 45 35 45
    DK/NA 10 5 15 9 11 9
    Source

  • 23. Do you support or oppose the United States joining Israel in military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Support 42% 81% 15% 35% 47% 38%
    Oppose 51 15 75 60 48 53
    DK/NA 7 4 10 5 5 8
    Source

  • 24. Do you think U.S. military strikes targeting Iran's nuclear program would make Americans safer or less safe?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Safer 42% 80% 13% 35% 50% 35%
    Less safe 50 14 76 58 44 55
    DK/NA 8 6 11 7 7 9
    Source

  • 25. How concerned are you about the possibility that the United States will get drawn into a war with Iran; very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned, or not concerned at all?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Very concerned 44% 19% 68% 47% 33% 53%
    Somewhat concerned 34 43 29 32 37 31
    Not so concerned 13 20 2 14 15 11
    Not concerned at all 9 17 1 7 13 5
    Source

Quinnipac: 7 Out Of 10 Voters Do Not Want The U.S. To Take Military Action Against Iran For Killing Of Protesters, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 70% Say Presidents Should Seek Congressional Approval Before Taking Military Action Against Another Country

Published (30 tables/charts)

  • 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 40% 88% 3% 33% 49% 33% 49%
    Disapprove 54 8 94 59 45 61 44
    DK/NA 6 4 3 8 7 6 7
    Source

  • 1a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q1) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve strongly 31% 72% 2% 21% 36% 26% 39%
    Approve smwht 9 15 1 11 11 7 10
    Disapprove smwht 4 3 1 8 6 3 5
    Disapprove strongly 48 5 93 50 37 57 39
    DK/NA 8 4 3 10 9 7 7
    Source

  • 2. Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Right direction 38% 79% 5% 33% 44% 32% 47%
    Wrong direction 56 16 93 60 49 63 43
    DK/NA 6 5 2 7 7 5 10
    Source

  • 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as Secretary of State?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 42% 83% 7% 37% 52% 33% 50%
    Disapprove 45 8 81 48 37 52 41
    DK/NA 13 10 12 15 11 15 9
    Source

  • 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way J.D. Vance is handling his job as vice president?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 88% 3% 35% 49% 35% 53%
    Disapprove 49 7 87 54 41 56 40
    DK/NA 9 5 9 12 10 9 7
    Source

  • 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Miller is handling his job as White House Deputy Chief of Staff?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 34% 73% 5% 26% 38% 30% 40%
    Disapprove 44 8 77 48 41 46 37
    DK/NA 23 19 18 25 20 24 23
    Source

  • 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Susie Wiles is handling her job as White House Chief of Staff?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 35% 70% 8% 29% 41% 31% 41%
    Disapprove 40 8 74 39 34 45 35
    DK/NA 25 22 18 31 26 24 24
    Source

  • 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is handling his job as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 39% 80% 4% 34% 46% 33% 48%
    Disapprove 50 12 86 54 43 57 44
    DK/NA 10 7 10 11 10 10 8
    Source

  • 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pete Hegseth is handling his job as Secretary of Defense?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 40% 82% 7% 34% 48% 33% 46%
    Disapprove 49 9 84 54 43 53 41
    DK/NA 11 9 8 12 9 14 13
    Source

  • 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the economy?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 42% 89% 3% 38% 52% 35% 49%
    Disapprove 53 9 95 55 42 61 44
    DK/NA 5 2 2 7 6 4 7
    Source

  • 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - foreign policy?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 87% 3% 34% 50% 33% 50%
    Disapprove 56 9 94 62 47 63 46
    DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 4 4
    Source

  • 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - U.S. policy toward Venezuela?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 83% 4% 38% 52% 33% 53%
    Disapprove 52 10 89 57 42 60 44
    DK/NA 6 7 7 5 6 7 3
    Source

  • 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as Commander in Chief of the U.S. military?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 43% 89% 4% 38% 53% 35% 53%
    Disapprove 53 9 95 58 43 62 42
    DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 4 6
    Source

  • 14. Under Donald Trump, do you think America's leadership in the world has gotten stronger, gotten weaker, or remained about the same?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Stronger 42% 83% 4% 39% 52% 34% 53%
    Weaker 46 8 83 50 36 55 40
    The same 10 8 11 10 11 10 6
    Source

  • 15. Under Donald Trump, do you think America's moral authority in the world has gotten stronger, gotten weaker, or remained about the same?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Stronger 34% 71% 3% 27% 43% 26% 41%
    Weaker 50 11 86 54 40 58 44
    The same 13 16 8 16 13 13 13
    DK/NA 3 3 4 3 4 3 2
    Source

  • 16. How closely have you been following news about U.S. actions in Venezuela; very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Very closely 49% 56% 40% 51% 53% 45% 58%
    Somewhat closely 38 31 45 36 36 39 33
    Not too closely 13 13 15 13 10 16 9
    Source

  • 17. Do you support or oppose the Trump administration's decision to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and bring them to the United States to face drug trafficking charges?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 47% 85% 11% 45% 58% 38% 55%
    Oppose 45 7 79 47 35 52 39
    DK/NA 8 7 11 7 7 10 6
    Source

  • 18. Do you support or oppose the United States running Venezuela until it is satisfied that the government there will operate the way the U.S. wants it to?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 35% 69% 4% 34% 46% 26% 42%
    Oppose 57 19 88 60 48 64 49
    DK/NA 8 11 7 6 6 10 9
    Source

  • 19. Do you think the Trump administration is providing a clear explanation of the reasons behind the United States' actions against Venezuela, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Clear 41% 76% 11% 35% 50% 34% 47%
    No 53 17 82 60 45 60 48
    DK/NA 6 7 6 5 5 6 5
    Source

  • 20. Do you support or oppose the U.S. taking over Venezuela's oil sales?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 38% 76% 7% 31% 47% 30% 46%
    Oppose 55 13 90 62 47 62 49
    DK/NA 7 10 4 7 6 7 6
    Source

  • 21. Do you think the U.S. actions in Venezuela will improve the lives of everyday Venezuelans, or don't you think so?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Improve 45% 86% 7% 40% 55% 36% 55%
    No 44 7 81 46 33 54 39
    DK/NA 11 6 13 14 11 10 6
    Source

  • 22. Would you support or oppose the United States sending ground troops into Venezuela in order to control the country?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 21% 47% 3% 16% 27% 17% 22%
    Oppose 73 45 92 80 67 77 71
    DK/NA 6 7 5 4 7 6 7
    Source

  • 23. Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action to attack suspected illegal drug facilities in Mexico, if this meant acting without the permission of the Mexican government?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 37% 74% 11% 30% 48% 29% 38%
    Oppose 57 20 85 66 47 65 54
    DK/NA 5 5 4 5 5 5 8
    Source

  • 24. Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action to attack suspected illegal drug facilities in Colombia, if this meant acting without the permission of the Colombian government?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 36% 72% 8% 31% 48% 27% 39%
    Oppose 55 17 87 62 46 63 52
    DK/NA 9 11 5 7 7 10 9
    Source

  • 25. Would you support or oppose the United States trying to buy Greenland?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 37% 67% 9% 36% 50% 26% 40%
    Oppose 55 22 85 58 42 66 51
    DK/NA 8 12 5 6 8 8 9
    Source

  • 26. Would you support or oppose the United States trying to take Greenland by military force?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 9% 23% 1% 3% 11% 7% 11%
    Oppose 86 68 95 94 84 87 83
    DK/NA 6 9 4 3 5 7 6
    Source

  • 27. If protesters in Iran are killed while demonstrating against the Iranian government, do you think the United States should take military action against Iran, or should the U.S. not get involved?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Should 18% 35% 7% 11% 23% 14% 20%
    Should not 70 53 79 80 66 73 70
    DK/NA 12 12 14 9 11 13 10
    Source

  • 28. In general, if a president decides to take military action against another country, do you think they should first receive approval from Congress, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Should 70% 35% 95% 78% 63% 75% 66%
    No 24 54 2 18 28 22 30
    DK/NA 6 10 3 4 9 3 4
    Source

  • 29. In general, do you think the United States should: work with other nations to solve problems or work alone to solve problems?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Work with others 88% 81% 96% 89% 82% 92% 90%
    Work alone 7 13 3 6 12 3 4
    DK/NA 5 6 2 5 6 4 6
    Source

  • 30. Do you think it's in the national interest of the United States to expand its power in the western hemisphere, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Natl interest 38% 67% 14% 34% 53% 25% 43%
    No 52 24 76 58 38 64 48
    DK/NA 10 9 11 8 9 11 9
    Source

Timeline

2022 – Nationwide protests erupt after the death of Mahsa Amini, becoming the largest anti‑regime movement in recent memory and later serving as a benchmark for the scale of the 2025‑2026 unrest[28].

June 2025 – Israel and the United States conduct a 12‑day war, firing hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles at Israeli towns and striking Iranian nuclear and military sites; the episode reveals Iran’s rapid missile capability and prompts Tehran to rebuild its missile stockpiles[1][30].

Dec 28, 2025 – Protests erupt in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over soaring inflation and a record‑low rial, quickly spreading to other cities and marking the largest anti‑government wave since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising; demonstrators chant against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and call for regime change, while authorities respond with live fire and an internet shutdown[2][16].

Jan 2, 2026 – Deaths rise as protests widen to rural provinces, with seven people killed in Lorestan, Lordegan and Kouhdasht and dozens more injured, while the government announces a plan to unify exchange rates and reappoints central‑bank chief Abdolnaser Hemmati amid economic turmoil[24][23].

Jan 3, 2026 – Iran’s foreign ministry warns that any U.S. intervention would make Washington fully responsible for regional fallout, as protests spread to 17 provinces and the government unveils a subsidy‑based exchange‑rate reform to curb corruption[23].

Jan 4, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declares that “rioters must be put in their place,” separates them from legitimate protesters, and blames foreign powers for fomenting unrest as the death toll climbs to at least 15 across more than 170 locations[28].

Jan 8, 2026 – Security forces impose a near‑total internet and phone blackout, cutting communications as protests intensify and Khamenei accuses demonstrators of acting on behalf of U.S. President Donald Trump, while the regime claims it has halted uranium enrichment to signal openness to nuclear talks[22][28].

Jan 9, 2026 – Israeli intelligence chief Shlomi Binder meets U.S. officials in Washington to discuss possible strike targets inside Iran, signaling covert coordination despite Netanyahu’s public silence[1].

Jan 9, 2026 – The EU moves to list the IRGC as a terrorist organization and the United States positions the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the region; President Trump warns of “very strong action” if Tehran executes detained protesters and the European Parliament bans Iranian diplomatic staff from its premises[7][14].

Jan 9, 2026 – Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urges Iranians to take to the streets, prompting a nationwide surge of demonstrations that shut markets, trigger a fresh internet outage, and draw calls for his return, while the regime labels the unrest as foreign‑backed rioting[27][21].

Jan 10, 2026 – The exiled crown prince’s call spurs Thursday‑night protests across Tehran and other cities, leading authorities to cut international calls and further restrict internet access, while security forces report dozens of fatalities and thousands of arrests[19][27].

Jan 11, 2026 – Rights groups report at least 116 deaths and over 2,600 detentions as protests enter a two‑week mark, while state TV acknowledges security‑force casualties but omits protester deaths; President Trump publicly declares that killings are stopping and that the U.S. stands ready to help, even as the U.S. and UK begin a partial withdrawal from Al‑Udeid air base in Qatar[18][11].

Jan 12, 2026 – Activists tally 544 deaths, including 496 protesters, and more than 10,600 arrests, while Trump says Iran has proposed negotiations and the Iranian parliament speaker threatens to target U.S. bases if attacked[17][17].

Jan 13, 2026 – Reza Pahlavi declares the regime “at the end of the road,” urges international backing, and outlines a 100‑day interim plan for a democratic transition, while Trump hints at renewed military action, posts “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” and threatens “very strong action” if protesters are harmed[25][15].

Jan 14, 2026 – President Trump consults his national‑security team, demands a confirmed death toll, and signals that the U.S. may take “strong” measures, while former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta urges some U.S. response to preserve credibility; analysts warn that limited “flash” strikes could backfire[13][12].

Jan 15, 2026 – Trump tells reporters that the killing of protesters is “stopping,” asserts there is no U.S. plan to execute Iranians, and notes a partial U.S. and UK withdrawal from Al‑Udeid, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi denies any imminent hangings and warns the U.S. against repeating past mistakes[11][11].

Jan 16, 2026 – Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi urges the world to back the protests, calls for a surgical strike on IRGC leadership, pushes for economic pressure, expulsion of diplomats, and satellite internet to sustain connectivity amid the crackdown[5].

Jan 17, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledges that “thousands” have been killed in the protests, describes the killings as “inhuman,” and blames the United States, while the death toll is reported at about 3,090 by HRANA and internet access remains at roughly 2 % of normal levels[4].

Jan 23, 2026 – Eyewitnesses describe a live‑fire crackdown in Isfahan on Jan 9, with security forces using birdshot and tear gas, while Khamenei vows to crush “destructive elements” and the Revolutionary Guard texts citizens to avoid gatherings[3].

Jan 24, 2026 – A senior Iranian official warns that a regime collapse would benefit Israel, while President Trump orders the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group toward Iranian waters and cites past operations as precedents; Iran’s foreign minister warns of full‑scale retaliation if attacked[9].

Jan 26, 2026 – Meta disables Instagram follower lists for accounts based in Iran to hinder regime data‑extraction efforts, aiming to protect protesters from surveillance after reports that officials were mapping social networks to target demonstrators[8].

Jan 28, 2026 – Human‑rights groups verify over 6,000 deaths—including 5,800 protesters—and report that families must pay roughly $7,000 or have bodies reclassified as Basij martyrs to retrieve corpses, while a near‑total communications blackout continues to obscure reporting[2].

Jan 31, 2026 – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu privately lobbies President Trump for a maximalist U.S. strike and regime‑change action against Iran, urging a “golden moment” while publicly remaining silent; Israeli military intelligence chief Shlomi Binder meets U.S. officials to discuss Iranian strike targets[1].

Feb 4, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei warns that a U.S. attack would trigger a regional war yet permits Iran to re‑enter nuclear negotiations, while the economic collapse that sparked the protests leaves the rial at a record 1.42 million per dollar and the regime authorizes harsh repression, logging more than 6,700 deaths according to activists[6].

Feb 19, 2026 – A Trump adviser estimates a 90 % chance of a U.S. strike within weeks, citing stalled nuclear talks, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group moves into the region; anti‑regime protests erupt in five provinces despite a harsh crackdown, with human‑rights groups reporting at least 7,000 killed and over 50,000 detained[29].

Feb 21, 2026 – Middle East Institute expert Ross Harrison argues that U.S. strikes on Iran are becoming inevitable but unlikely to topple the regime, noting that even killing Supreme Leader Khamenei would not dismantle Iran’s entrenched political structures and that the June 2025 “twelve‑day war” informs Tehran’s current defensive posture[30].

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