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Ukraine Reclaims 201 sq km in Five‑Day Push Ahead of Geneva Peace Talks

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  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size

Rapid Five‑Day Advance Reduces Russian‑Held Territory Ukraine’s forces retook 201 sq km between Feb 11‑15, marking the fastest gain since mid‑2023 and cutting Russian‑controlled land to under 18 % of Ukraine’s total area [1]. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) supplied the measurements, confirming the shift as the most rapid Ukrainian advance in 2½ years [1]. This territorial change follows Russia’s earlier seizure of roughly 27 % of Ukraine after the 2022 invasion, including the 7 % annexed in 2014 [1].

Starlink Restrictions Likely Boosted Ukrainian Momentum Elon Musk announced limits on “unauthorized use” of SpaceX’s Starlink by Russian forces earlier February, reducing Russia’s battlefield internet [1]. Ukrainian officials credited the loss of Russian access to high‑speed communications with facilitating recent gains around Zaporizhzhia [1]. Analysts link the restriction directly to the accelerated Ukrainian offensive during the five‑day period [1].

Massive Russian Drone‑Missile Barrage Preceded Geneva Negotiations Moscow launched roughly 400 drones and 29 missiles targeting energy and military‑industrial sites across twelve regions [1]. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported nine injuries from the attacks, and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described the strike as “massive” and timed before the upcoming peace talks [1]. The offensive underscored Russia’s attempt to pressure negotiations while maintaining strategic assets [1].

Geneva Talks Center on Contested Southern and Eastern Fronts Russian and Ukrainian delegations convened in Geneva on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss disputed territories [1]. Russia insisted on retaining large portions of southern and eastern Ukraine, including parts of Donetsk, while Kyiv argued any concession would be illegal and unpopular domestically [1]. The talks, brokered by the United States, focus heavily on the status of these contested regions [1].

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Timeline

2022 – Russia launches a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, framing the war as a defence of ethnic Russians, the Russian language and Orthodox Church and as a continuation of WWII victory narratives, while pledging to prevent NATO expansion [11, 13].

2023 – Vitaly, a ceramics artist who volunteered for Ukraine’s 2022 defence, dies in Donbas; his family later freezes his sperm for future use [1].

2025 – Russia controls roughly 20 % of Ukrainian territory, including most of Donetsk and Luhansk, while U.S. intelligence maintains that President Putin still aims to capture all of Ukraine [13, 12].

Dec 1, 2025 – Russia claims capture of Pokrovsk; Ukrainian forces report ongoing fighting in the city’s northern sector, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials meet in Florida to discuss a peace proposal [27, 24].

Dec 2, 2025 – Russia reiterates its claim over Pokrovsk ahead of U.S.–Ukraine talks; U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff prepares to meet Putin in Moscow, and the Russian Pacific Fleet upgrades the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade to a division [24, 27].

Dec 3, 2025 – Drone footage shows Myrnohrad nearly encircled by Russian forces; Ukrainian troops use ground‑robot drones to deliver food and water as traditional supply routes are cut [23].

Dec 3, 2025 – A Russian offensive assessment notes continued pressure on the Pokrovsk‑Myrnohrad pocket and intensified Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian logistics [26].

Dec 4, 2025 – President Putin vows to seize Donbas “by military or other means” during a New Delhi summit, while a Ukrainian delegation heads to the United States for peace talks; ISW projects the next major Donetsk seizure no earlier than August 2027 [22].

Dec 5, 2025 – The Financial Times reports that U.S. security guarantees are tied to Ukraine ceding all of Donbas; Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev calls a Donbas withdrawal the “path to peace” [9, 10].

Dec 5, 2025 – Foreign Minister Lavrov claims the United States backs Russian land claims in areas with ethnic Russians and opposes NATO [14].

Dec 5, 2025 – The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy criticises NATO’s expectations for Ukraine, while President Putin rejects parts of the U.S. 28‑point peace plan [19, 20].

Dec 5, 2025 – Russian General Gerasimov inflates battlefield gains, claiming 17 settlements seized, but ISW verifies far smaller advances [9].

Dec 6, 2025 – Russia launches 704 missiles and drones in an overnight strike on Ukrainian rail and energy infrastructure; Ukrainian air defenses shoot down the majority of the attacks [17].

Dec 6, 2025 – U.S. and Ukrainian officials meet in Miami, linking a durable peace to Russian “good‑faith” actions and discussing cease‑fire terms along current front lines [18].

Dec 9, 2025 – Former President Trump claims Ukraine is losing, but U.S. officials say there is no evidence of a major battlefield shift and that fighting remains largely unchanged [16].

Dec 12, 2025 – Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov announces that Russian police and National Guard will remain in Donbas after any peace settlement, asserting the region is part of the Russian Federation [15].

Dec 16, 2025 – Lavrov reiterates that the United States supports Russian claims to territories with ethnic Russians and rejects NATO, echoing earlier statements [14].

Dec 22, 2025 – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismisses U.S. intelligence assessments that Putin seeks full Ukrainian conquest as unreliable [12].

Dec 23, 2025 – Ukrainian forces withdraw from Siversk, allowing Russian troops to approach Sloviansk and Kramatorsk; Russia now controls about 75 % of Donetsk and 99 % of Luhansk [2].

Dec 31, 2025 – President Putin projects confidence, invoking WWII imagery and pledging to “liberate” Donbas and Novorossiya by any means [11].

Jan 1, 2026 – Russian brigades advance across open countryside in Zaporizhzhia, intensifying pressure on Ukrainian southern defenses; Russia claims capture of Huliaipole and over 210 km² seized since early December [5].

Jan 27, 2026 – Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev posts that Ukraine’s Donbas withdrawal is the “path to peace,” while President Zelensky declares a security‑guarantee document 100 % complete and describes Abu Dhabi trilateral talks as constructive [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – The Financial Times links U.S. security guarantees to a full Donetsk concession; ISW warns such a concession would be a strategic error and projects the next major Russian seizure no earlier than August 2027 [9].

Feb 4, 2026 – War widow Natalia exhumes her husband Vitaly’s remains from Slovyansk and reburies them in Kyiv with a Ukrainian flag and military honors, fearing Russian occupation of the contested front‑line town [1].

Feb 5, 2026 – Russian analysts assess that Moscow prepares a limited summer offensive as early as late April 2026, focusing on Slovyansk‑Kramatorsk and Orikhiv‑Zaporizhzhia axes but facing reserve shortages [6].

Feb 5, 2026 – SpaceX disables unregistered Starlink terminals, forcing Russian frontline units to curtail assaults and FPV‑drone attacks while Ukrainian forces experience fewer communications disruptions [6].

Feb 6, 2026 – Foreign Minister Lavrov repeats that Russia will not accept Western security guarantees, insisting on the Istanbul Protocol draft that gives Russia veto power and forces Ukraine into neutrality [6].

Feb 6, 2026 – Unknown shooters fire three rounds at GRU deputy head Vladimir Alekseyev near his Moscow home, leaving him critically injured [6].

Feb 8, 2026 – Russia announces the seizure of Sydorivka in Sumy as part of a “border‑village” narrative, though independent verification is lacking [7].

Feb 8, 2026 – President Zelensky announces ten export centres for Ukraine’s defence industry across Northern and Baltic Europe and joint drone production lines in Germany and the UK, highlighting growing self‑sufficiency [7].

Feb 9, 2026 – The United States and Russia restore a high‑level military hotline during a senior officials meeting in Abu Dhabi, signaling a thaw after more than four years [8].

Feb 9, 2026 – Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s power grid while fighting continues along a roughly 1,000‑km front; a recent prisoner swap returns 157 Russian soldiers and 150 Ukrainian servicemen [8].

Late April 2026 (planned) – Russian forces may launch a limited summer offensive targeting Slovyansk‑Kramatorsk and Orikhiv‑Zaporizhzhia, contingent on securing starting positions and sufficient reserves [6].

Upcoming (next days) – Abu Dhabi trilateral talks are slated to resume, with U.S., Ukrainian and Russian teams continuing dialogue on peace terms [10].

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