Trump’s Approval Plummets to Record Lows Among Independents and Low‑Income Voters Ahead of State of the Union
Updated (52 articles)
Steep Nationwide Decline Among Independents and Low‑Income Voters The February 17‑20, 2026 SSRS poll of 2,496 adults recorded a 36 % overall approval rating, down from 48 % a year earlier, and a net‑approval swing of ‑22 points [2][1]. Among voters earning under $50,000, approval fell to 35 % (net ‑30), a ten‑point drop since the February 2025 survey [1]. Independent voters approved at a historic 26 %—the lowest level in Trump’s two terms—down from 41 % in February 2025 [2][1].
State‑by‑State Map Shows Entrenched Polarization With Narrow Battleground Gaps Civiqs data compiled from January 2025 to February 2026 reveals solid Republican majorities in West Virginia (+23 net points) and other red states, while Hawaii posts the worst net rating at ‑58 [3]. Traditional swing states display modest deficits: Pennsylvania ‑16, Michigan ‑21, Wisconsin ‑12, and several others hover around 44 % approval versus 52 % disapproval, leaving room for turnout effects [3]. Undecided voters remain a small 3‑6 % nationwide, indicating most adults have firm opinions [3].
National Polls Converge on Historic Negative Net Ratings Four major surveys between early January and early February 2026 place Trump’s net approval between ‑19 and ‑26 points, the deepest negative rating for a second‑term president at this stage [6]. The AP‑NORC AmeriSpeak poll (Feb 5‑8) reported a ‑26 net, NBC Decision Desk (Jan 27‑Feb 6) a ‑22 net, Quinnipiac (Jan 29‑Feb 2) a ‑19 net, and YouGov/Yahoo (Jan 8‑12) a ‑20 net [6]. The New York Times polling average shows 41 % approve and 56 % disapprove, while a Public Polling Project survey (Feb 16‑18) found 42.4 % approve and 54.6 % disapprove [4].
Methodological Outlier Suggests Slight Positive Net Rating An InsiderAdvantage poll of 800 likely voters (Feb 17‑18) reported 50 % approval versus 46 % disapproval, a net +4 points, contrasting sharply with other recent surveys [4]. Analyst Eli McKown‑Dawson notes the poll’s “house effects” require adjustment, converting the result to an effective ‑4 net, underscoring the importance of methodology in interpreting outliers [4].
White House Reiterates 2024 Election as the “Ultimate Poll” Spokesperson Davis Ingle repeatedly framed the November 5 2024 election—nearly 80 million votes—as the definitive mandate, dismissing current low numbers as temporary fluctuations [1][4][5][6]. Ingle’s statements appear in every article, emphasizing the administration’s view that electoral victory outweighs contemporary polling trends.
Sources
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1.
Newsweek: Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets Among Independents and Low‑Income Voters: Highlights a February 2026 SSRS poll showing 36 % overall approval, 35 % among low‑income voters, and a record‑low 26 % independent approval, plus White House defense citing the 2024 election .
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2.
Newsweek: Trump’s Independent Approval Hits Record Low Ahead of State of the Union: Reports the same poll’s 26 % independent rating, 36 % national approval, and public demand for economic focus in the upcoming State of the Union .
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3.
Newsweek: Trump’s State‑by‑State Approval Map After 13 Months: Provides a geographic breakdown showing strong red‑state support, deep blue‑state opposition, and narrow deficits in swing states, indicating entrenched polarization .
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4.
Newsweek: Trump’s Approval Rating Slides Nationwide, With One Outlier Poll: Summarizes multiple national polls (NYT average, Public Polling Project, Wisconsin TIPP) showing negative net ratings, while noting an InsiderAdvantage outlier and MAGA base strength .
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5.
Newsweek: Trump’s Approval Falls to Record Low in New Poll: Details a Big Data Poll (Feb 20) with 42.4 % approval, 43 % strong disapproval, and a sharp drop from the 55.5 % start‑of‑term rating after a May foreign‑policy shift .
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6.
Newsweek: Trump’s Approval Rating Falls to Historic Lows Across Four National Polls: Aggregates four early‑year surveys (AP‑NORC, NBC Decision Desk, Quinnipiac, YouGov/Yahoo) all showing net approvals between ‑19 and ‑26 points, the lowest for a second‑term president .
Videos (1)
Primary Data (7)
Gallup: Economy, Immigration, Abortion, Democracy Driving Voters
Published (6 tables/charts)Gallup: Trump's Approval Rating Drops to 36%, New Second-Term Low
Published (6 tables/charts)Quinnipac: Voters Give Democrats In Congress A Record Low Job Approval But Still Might Vote For Them In 2026, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Majority Think Trump’S Use Of Presidential Power Goes Too Far
Published (49 tables/charts)Pew: 2. Views of Trump’s policies and confidence in his ability to handle issues
Published (5 tables/charts)Pew: Confidence in Trump Dips, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans
Published (6 tables/charts)Pew: Confidence in Trump Dips, and Fewer Now Say They Support His Policies and Plans
Published (6 tables/charts)Pew: Few Americans support Trump’s proposed takeover of Greenland
Published (1 tables/charts)Timeline
Nov 5, 2024 – Trump wins the presidential election, securing nearly 80 million votes, which his White House cites as a mandate for his agenda; Davis Ingle emphasizes that “nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump.” [7][8]
May 2024 – Trump’s administration launches a foreign‑policy shift, including bombing Iran’s nuclear sites in support of Israel, which later triggers a sharp drop in his approval ratings. [7]
Early 2025 – The Federal Reserve cuts rates twice, lowering the policy rate to about 3.9 % while inflation hovers near 3 %, providing the macro backdrop for Trump’s affordability messaging. [1]
Dec 10, 2025 – At a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump declares that “consumer prices are falling tremendously” and says making America affordable again is his top priority, while announcing a $12 billion aid package for farmers. [1]
Dec 12‑15, 2025 – A Fox News poll finds 44 % approve Trump’s overall performance but only 39 % approve his economic management; 72 % rate economic conditions as fair or poor and the November CPI shows inflation at 2.7 %. [20]
Dec 18, 2025 – Trump delivers a prime‑time national address claiming his administration has “fixed the economy” and attacks President Biden, though fact‑checkers label many of his statistics as exaggerated. [5]
Dec 24, 2025 – A CNN/SSRS poll reveals that about four in ten Americans feel neither Trump nor Democratic leaders listen to them, and 78‑year‑old Betty Glazebrook urges Trump to “focus on the economy because it’s awful.” [4]
Dec 25, 2025 – Nate Silver’s polling average places Trump’s net approval at –12.5, noting a recent rebound from a –15‑point low in late November. [18]
Dec 26‑29, 2025 – YouGov/Economist surveys show low‑income approval at 38 % (net –16) and working‑class approval at 31 % (net –34), reflecting volatility as inflation and labor‑market weakness persist. [14][17]
Dec 30, 2025 – Harvard Youth and GenForward polls report that disapproval among men ages 18‑29 climbs to 62 % and 55 % respectively, indicating a slip in Trump’s support among young men who helped him win in 2024. [16]
Jan 5‑7, 2026 – CBS News/YouGov finds Trump’s net approval among Gen Z voters plunges to –32, a sharp reversal from earlier gains in his second term. [13]
Jan 8‑12, 2026 – Yahoo News/YouGov reports a net approval of –20, while the AP‑NORC poll shows economy approval rising modestly to 37 % and overall approval hovering near 40 %. [8][28]
Jan 9‑12, 2026 – The Economist/YouGov low‑income wave records 36 % approval (net –18), a slight rebound from the previous week’s 34 % approval. [14]
Jan 12‑15, 2026 – The AP‑NORC poll notes immigration approval falls to 38 % from 49 % in March, while 45 % say Trump helped immigration and border security and foreign‑policy disapproval sits around 60 %. [28]
Jan 16‑20, 2026 – The American Research Group poll places Trump at 35 % approval (net –28) and 32 % approve his handling of the economy, the lowest ARG reading since his second term began. [12]
Jan 23‑26, 2026 – A Fox News urban poll shows Trump’s job approval in cities rises to 40 % from 34 % in December, though national approval stays flat at 44 %. [11]
Jan 31‑Feb 1, 2026 – InsiderAdvantage reports Trump’s approval rebounds to 50 % after a dip following the Minneapolis Border Patrol shooting, and Trump posts on Truth Social, “The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received.” [9]
Feb 2, 2026 – Multiple surveys, including an AP‑NORC poll, reveal most Americans doubt Trump’s “affordability” focus, with half saying his policies have made life less affordable and 60 % criticize ICE’s aggressive tactics. [26]
Feb 3, 2026 – The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows overall job approval at 45 % and economic approval slipping to 43 %, while 63 % still credit Trump for the economy. [10]
Feb 5, 2026 – InsiderAdvantage’s 50 % approval figure appears alongside Trump’s Truth Social claim that the Dow will hit 100,000 by the end of his term, underscoring his optimistic market rhetoric. [6][9]
Feb 10, 2026 – A Big Data poll records Trump’s approval at 42.4 % and disapproval at 54.6 %, the lowest level of his second term, with “strongly disapprove” now outpacing total approval. [7]
Feb 18‑19, 2026 – Four major national surveys (AP‑NORC, NBC Decision Desk, Quinnipiac, YouGov/Yahoo) place Trump’s net approval between –19 and –26, a historic low for a president midway through a second term. [8]
Feb 20, 2026 – The Big Data poll confirms Trump’s approval at a record low of 42.4 % and notes the decline began after a May 2024 foreign‑policy focus. [7]
Feb 23, 2026 – A CNN poll shows independents approve Trump at a record low of 26 %, overall approval slips to 36 %, and 57 % of respondents demand he address the economy and cost of living in his State of the Union address on Tuesday. [6]
Feb 24, 2026 – Trump’s State of the Union is scheduled for Tuesday night, where he is expected to emphasize economic and cost‑of‑living issues amid mounting public pressure. [6]
Nov 2026 (future) – Midterm elections loom, with analysts warning that Trump’s declining approval and economic dissatisfaction could jeopardize Republican control of Congress. [15][25]
2028 (future speculation) – Former adviser Steve Bannon hints at a possible Trump run in 2028, while Trump mentions potential successors such as Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. [25]
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Trump’s Approval Crashes to Historic Lows Among Independents and Low‑Income Voters
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