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Iranian Campus Uprisings Intensify as U.S. Threatens Limited Strike and Tehran Fortifies Nuclear Sites

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Student Demonstrations Sweep Tehran Universities on Semester Start On February 21‑22 students rallied at Sharif University of Technology, Shahid Beheshti, Amir Kabir and Mashhad University, chanting “death to the dictator” and other anti‑government slogans [1][2][3]. The protests coincided with the 40‑day mourning period for demonstrators killed in January’s crackdown [1][2]. Organizers invoked exiled heir Reza Pahlavi and denounced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei [1].

Clashes Result in Injuries and Arrests Amid Pro‑Government Counter‑Demonstrations Pro‑government supporters confronted protesters, leading to rock‑throwing that injured a Basij militia volunteer at Sharif [1]. Videos show scuffles and masked groups confronting each other, while authorities detained a teacher activist in Abdanan, prompting chants of “Death to Khamenei” [1][2]. Human‑rights monitors reported at least seven thousand killed and over fifty thousand detained since the protests began [5].

U.S. Military Posturing Intensifies as Trump Mulls Limited Strike President Donald Trump announced a possible limited strike on Iran within ten days, linking the decision to progress on the nuclear deal [2][4]. Polls show a strong American majority opposing any strike, with 70 % rejecting intervention even if protesters are killed [4]. The U.S. carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and three destroyers entered the Mediterranean, creating a rare two‑carrier presence in the Middle East [3][5].

Iran Fortifies Nuclear Facilities in Anticipation of Possible Airstrikes Iran covered the Taleghan 2 site at Parchin with soil after encasing it in a concrete sarcophagus, and similar hardening is underway at Esfahan and Kolang Gaz La complexes [5]. These steps follow joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman and aim to extend the survivability of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure [3][5].

Disputed Death Toll Highlights Divergent Narratives Human Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana) cites at least 6,159 deaths—including 5,804 protesters—while Iranian officials claim over 3,100 fatalities, mostly security personnel or bystanders [2].

Sources

Primary Data (2)

Quinnipac: Voters 51 – 42 Percent Oppose U.S. Joining Israel In Military Strikes On Iran’S Nuclear Sites, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Vast Majority Concerned U.S. Will Get Drawn Into A War With Iran

Published (5 tables/charts)

  • 21. Thinking about the relationship between the United States and Israel, do you think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, not supportive enough of Israel, or is the U.S. support of Israel about right?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Too supportive 42% 15% 63% 47% 42% 42%
    Not enough 5 6 3 9 3 7
    About right 45 75 21 38 49 40
    DK/NA 8 4 13 5 5 10
    Source

  • 22. Do you support or oppose Israel's military strikes against nuclear and military sites inside Iran?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Support 50% 80% 25% 46% 54% 46%
    Oppose 40 15 60 45 35 45
    DK/NA 10 5 15 9 11 9
    Source

  • 23. Do you support or oppose the United States joining Israel in military strikes on Iran's nuclear sites?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Support 42% 81% 15% 35% 47% 38%
    Oppose 51 15 75 60 48 53
    DK/NA 7 4 10 5 5 8
    Source

  • 24. Do you think U.S. military strikes targeting Iran's nuclear program would make Americans safer or less safe?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Safer 42% 80% 13% 35% 50% 35%
    Less safe 50 14 76 58 44 55
    DK/NA 8 6 11 7 7 9
    Source

  • 25. How concerned are you about the possibility that the United States will get drawn into a war with Iran; very concerned, somewhat concerned, not so concerned, or not concerned at all?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
    Very concerned 44% 19% 68% 47% 33% 53%
    Somewhat concerned 34 43 29 32 37 31
    Not so concerned 13 20 2 14 15 11
    Not concerned at all 9 17 1 7 13 5
    Source

Quinnipac: 7 Out Of 10 Voters Do Not Want The U.S. To Take Military Action Against Iran For Killing Of Protesters, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 70% Say Presidents Should Seek Congressional Approval Before Taking Military Action Against Another Country

Published (30 tables/charts)

  • 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 40% 88% 3% 33% 49% 33% 49%
    Disapprove 54 8 94 59 45 61 44
    DK/NA 6 4 3 8 7 6 7
    Source

  • 1a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q1) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve strongly 31% 72% 2% 21% 36% 26% 39%
    Approve smwht 9 15 1 11 11 7 10
    Disapprove smwht 4 3 1 8 6 3 5
    Disapprove strongly 48 5 93 50 37 57 39
    DK/NA 8 4 3 10 9 7 7
    Source

  • 2. Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Right direction 38% 79% 5% 33% 44% 32% 47%
    Wrong direction 56 16 93 60 49 63 43
    DK/NA 6 5 2 7 7 5 10
    Source

  • 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as Secretary of State?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 42% 83% 7% 37% 52% 33% 50%
    Disapprove 45 8 81 48 37 52 41
    DK/NA 13 10 12 15 11 15 9
    Source

  • 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way J.D. Vance is handling his job as vice president?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 88% 3% 35% 49% 35% 53%
    Disapprove 49 7 87 54 41 56 40
    DK/NA 9 5 9 12 10 9 7
    Source

  • 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Miller is handling his job as White House Deputy Chief of Staff?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 34% 73% 5% 26% 38% 30% 40%
    Disapprove 44 8 77 48 41 46 37
    DK/NA 23 19 18 25 20 24 23
    Source

  • 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Susie Wiles is handling her job as White House Chief of Staff?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 35% 70% 8% 29% 41% 31% 41%
    Disapprove 40 8 74 39 34 45 35
    DK/NA 25 22 18 31 26 24 24
    Source

  • 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is handling his job as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 39% 80% 4% 34% 46% 33% 48%
    Disapprove 50 12 86 54 43 57 44
    DK/NA 10 7 10 11 10 10 8
    Source

  • 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pete Hegseth is handling his job as Secretary of Defense?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 40% 82% 7% 34% 48% 33% 46%
    Disapprove 49 9 84 54 43 53 41
    DK/NA 11 9 8 12 9 14 13
    Source

  • 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the economy?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 42% 89% 3% 38% 52% 35% 49%
    Disapprove 53 9 95 55 42 61 44
    DK/NA 5 2 2 7 6 4 7
    Source

  • 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - foreign policy?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 87% 3% 34% 50% 33% 50%
    Disapprove 56 9 94 62 47 63 46
    DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 4 4
    Source

  • 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - U.S. policy toward Venezuela?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 83% 4% 38% 52% 33% 53%
    Disapprove 52 10 89 57 42 60 44
    DK/NA 6 7 7 5 6 7 3
    Source

  • 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as Commander in Chief of the U.S. military?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 43% 89% 4% 38% 53% 35% 53%
    Disapprove 53 9 95 58 43 62 42
    DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 4 6
    Source

  • 14. Under Donald Trump, do you think America's leadership in the world has gotten stronger, gotten weaker, or remained about the same?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Stronger 42% 83% 4% 39% 52% 34% 53%
    Weaker 46 8 83 50 36 55 40
    The same 10 8 11 10 11 10 6
    Source

  • 15. Under Donald Trump, do you think America's moral authority in the world has gotten stronger, gotten weaker, or remained about the same?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Stronger 34% 71% 3% 27% 43% 26% 41%
    Weaker 50 11 86 54 40 58 44
    The same 13 16 8 16 13 13 13
    DK/NA 3 3 4 3 4 3 2
    Source

  • 16. How closely have you been following news about U.S. actions in Venezuela; very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Very closely 49% 56% 40% 51% 53% 45% 58%
    Somewhat closely 38 31 45 36 36 39 33
    Not too closely 13 13 15 13 10 16 9
    Source

  • 17. Do you support or oppose the Trump administration's decision to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and bring them to the United States to face drug trafficking charges?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 47% 85% 11% 45% 58% 38% 55%
    Oppose 45 7 79 47 35 52 39
    DK/NA 8 7 11 7 7 10 6
    Source

  • 18. Do you support or oppose the United States running Venezuela until it is satisfied that the government there will operate the way the U.S. wants it to?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 35% 69% 4% 34% 46% 26% 42%
    Oppose 57 19 88 60 48 64 49
    DK/NA 8 11 7 6 6 10 9
    Source

  • 19. Do you think the Trump administration is providing a clear explanation of the reasons behind the United States' actions against Venezuela, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Clear 41% 76% 11% 35% 50% 34% 47%
    No 53 17 82 60 45 60 48
    DK/NA 6 7 6 5 5 6 5
    Source

  • 20. Do you support or oppose the U.S. taking over Venezuela's oil sales?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 38% 76% 7% 31% 47% 30% 46%
    Oppose 55 13 90 62 47 62 49
    DK/NA 7 10 4 7 6 7 6
    Source

  • 21. Do you think the U.S. actions in Venezuela will improve the lives of everyday Venezuelans, or don't you think so?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Improve 45% 86% 7% 40% 55% 36% 55%
    No 44 7 81 46 33 54 39
    DK/NA 11 6 13 14 11 10 6
    Source

  • 22. Would you support or oppose the United States sending ground troops into Venezuela in order to control the country?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 21% 47% 3% 16% 27% 17% 22%
    Oppose 73 45 92 80 67 77 71
    DK/NA 6 7 5 4 7 6 7
    Source

  • 23. Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action to attack suspected illegal drug facilities in Mexico, if this meant acting without the permission of the Mexican government?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 37% 74% 11% 30% 48% 29% 38%
    Oppose 57 20 85 66 47 65 54
    DK/NA 5 5 4 5 5 5 8
    Source

  • 24. Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action to attack suspected illegal drug facilities in Colombia, if this meant acting without the permission of the Colombian government?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 36% 72% 8% 31% 48% 27% 39%
    Oppose 55 17 87 62 46 63 52
    DK/NA 9 11 5 7 7 10 9
    Source

  • 25. Would you support or oppose the United States trying to buy Greenland?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 37% 67% 9% 36% 50% 26% 40%
    Oppose 55 22 85 58 42 66 51
    DK/NA 8 12 5 6 8 8 9
    Source

  • 26. Would you support or oppose the United States trying to take Greenland by military force?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 9% 23% 1% 3% 11% 7% 11%
    Oppose 86 68 95 94 84 87 83
    DK/NA 6 9 4 3 5 7 6
    Source

  • 27. If protesters in Iran are killed while demonstrating against the Iranian government, do you think the United States should take military action against Iran, or should the U.S. not get involved?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Should 18% 35% 7% 11% 23% 14% 20%
    Should not 70 53 79 80 66 73 70
    DK/NA 12 12 14 9 11 13 10
    Source

  • 28. In general, if a president decides to take military action against another country, do you think they should first receive approval from Congress, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Should 70% 35% 95% 78% 63% 75% 66%
    No 24 54 2 18 28 22 30
    DK/NA 6 10 3 4 9 3 4
    Source

  • 29. In general, do you think the United States should: work with other nations to solve problems or work alone to solve problems?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Work with others 88% 81% 96% 89% 82% 92% 90%
    Work alone 7 13 3 6 12 3 4
    DK/NA 5 6 2 5 6 4 6
    Source

  • 30. Do you think it's in the national interest of the United States to expand its power in the western hemisphere, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Natl interest 38% 67% 14% 34% 53% 25% 43%
    No 52 24 76 58 38 64 48
    DK/NA 10 9 11 8 9 11 9
    Source

Timeline

Dec 28 2025 – Protesters gather in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over the rial’s collapse, sparking the largest anti‑government demonstrations in three years and quickly spreading to other cities [25].

Dec 29 2025 – The rial hits a record low of 1.42 million per dollar and Central Bank chief Mohammad Reza Farzin resigns, prompting further rallies in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz and Mashhad [25].

Jan 4 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declares that “rioters must be put in their place,” while human‑rights activists verify at least 15 deaths as protests expand to over 170 locations [24][28].

Jan 8 2026 – Iran tells Washington that recent U.S. statements and actions amount to a campaign of interference, warning of “pre‑emptive” military steps if needed [23].

Jan 9 2026 – Authorities impose a nationwide internet and phone blackout, cutting communications as protests erupt in more than 100 cities, with at least 45 people killed, including eight children [21][17].

Jan 9 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei accuses demonstrators of trying to “please” President Trump, framing the unrest as foreign‑backed [17][20].

Jan 9 2026 – Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urges Iranians to take to the streets; the regime responds by halting internet service and international calls to blunt coordination [27].

Jan 9 2026 – Large crowds in Tehran and Mashhad hold peaceful night marches, verified by BBC Persian, while the death toll reaches 22 protesters and six security personnel [22].

Jan 9 2026 – Protest chants broaden to include monarchist slogans such as “Pahlavi will return,” indicating a shift from purely economic grievances to political challenges [19].

Jan 10 2026 – Reza Pahlavi’s televised call spurs Thursday‑night demonstrations across Iran, with protesters targeting police kiosks and burning vehicles [15].

Jan 11 2026 – The exiled PMOI/MEK declares Iran ready for democracy, noting 116 deaths and over 2,600 detentions as protests enter a second week [14].

Jan 11 2026 – Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) counts more than 500 protest‑related deaths, while the AP cannot independently verify figures due to the blackout [13].

Jan 12 2026 – The U.S. State Department urges all American citizens to evacuate Iran immediately as the third week of protests sees hundreds killed and thousands detained [12].

Jan 13 2026 – President Trump warns that the United States will take “very strong action” if Iran executes protesters, saying “you’ll see some things” [11].

Jan 14 2026 – Trump claims he has “good authority” that killings have stopped, while Iran’s judiciary promises fast trials and swift punishments for detainees [10].

Jan 14 2026 – Trump reiterates that the U.S. will respond with “very strong action” should Iran carry out executions [11].

Jan 15 2026 – Senior Trump aides emerge from a Situation Room briefing indicating a decision on a limited strike is near, after Trump is briefed on the planned execution of Erfan Soltani [9].

Jan 24 2026 – Iran’s nationwide protests become the deadliest crackdown since 1979, with death toll estimates ranging from 3,117 (government) to 5,137 (HRANA) and material damage exceeding $125 million [8].

Jan 25 2026 – Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi says Trump “is a man of his word” and that U.S. action would hasten the regime’s collapse, while Tehran warns any U.S. aggression would trigger full‑scale war [7].

Jan 27 2026 – HRANA verifies at least 6,126 deaths (5,777 protesters) and 41,800 arrests; the U.S. carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrives in the region, giving Washington strike capability [6].

Jan 28 2026 – Anti‑government protests turn deadly across Iran, with HRANA confirming over 6,000 deaths and families forced to pay roughly $7,000 to retrieve corpses [4].

Jan 30 2026 – Trump urges Iran to abandon its nuclear program and stop “killing protesters by the thousands,” posting on Truth Social that Tehran must “come to the table” for a fair deal [3].

Jan 31 2026 – Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu privately lobbies the United States for a maximalist strike on Iran, while Israeli intel chief Shlomi Binder meets U.S. officials to discuss possible targets [2].

Feb 19 2026 – A senior Trump adviser tells Axios there is a 90 % chance of a U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran within weeks, as the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group moves into the region [29].

Feb 21 2026 – University students launch the first large‑scale anti‑government rallies since the January crackdown, marching at Sharif University and calling for “death to the dictator” [1].

Feb 21 2026 – President Trump says a limited strike is under consideration and that the world will know “within probably, 10 days” whether a nuclear deal is reached or action will be taken [1].

Feb 21 2026 – U.S. and Iranian officials meet in Switzerland, reporting progress on curbing Iran’s nuclear programme while the outcome remains uncertain [1].

Feb 21 2026 – HRANA confirms at least 6,159 deaths (5,804 protesters) and highlights divergent narratives with Tehran’s claim of 3,100 killed [1].

Feb 21 2026 – The U.S. deploys the carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and three destroyers to the Mediterranean, creating a rare simultaneous two‑carrier presence in the Middle East [30].

Feb 21 2026 – Iranian students chant anti‑government slogans at Tehran campuses, while state media claim the rally was intended to be peaceful but was disrupted by “mort au dictateur” shouts [30].

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