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War Likely to Drag On as Russia Holds Only One‑Fifth of Ukraine

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  • A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
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    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025 (EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock) Source Full size
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026. Source Full size
  • The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected
    The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected
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    The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected (Fred Scott/BBC) Source Full size
  • Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025
    Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025
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    Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025 (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
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  • Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war
    Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war
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    Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026. Source Full size
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  • « Dents de dragon » utilisées par l’armée ukrainienne pour construire des lignes de défense, le long de la route reliant Zaporijia à Pavlohrad, dans la région de Zaporijia (Ukraine), le 22 janvier 2026.JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE »
    « Dents de dragon » utilisées par l’armée ukrainienne pour construire des lignes de défense, le long de la route reliant Zaporijia à Pavlohrad, dans la région de Zaporijia (Ukraine), le 22 janvier 2026.JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE »
    Image: Le Monde
    « Dents de dragon » utilisées par l’armée ukrainienne pour construire des lignes de défense, le long de la route reliant Zaporijia à Pavlohrad, dans la région de Zaporijia (Ukraine), le 22 janvier 2026.JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE » (JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE ») Source Full size
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  • Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS
    Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS
    Image: Le Monde
    Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS (MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS) Source Full size
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  • Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP
    Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP
    Image: Le Monde
    Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP (VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP) Source Full size
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  • Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS
    Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS
    Image: Le Monde
    Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS (VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS) Source Full size

War Enters Fifth Year With Static Frontlines The “special military operation” launched on 24 February 2022 has entered its fifth calendar year, and frontlines in the east and south remain largely unchanged [4][5]. Russia controls roughly 20 % of Ukrainian territory, a share largely secured in the 2022 offensive, with only about 1 % additional ground gained in 2024‑2025 [1][6]. Both Ukrainian and Western analysts describe the conflict as a positional stalemate that exceeds the length of the Soviet “Great Patriotic War” used by Moscow for propaganda [5][6].

Zelensky Rejects Territorial Concessions and Demands Long‑Term Guarantees President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly refused Putin’s demand to cede roughly 20 % of Donetsk and other eastern regions, insisting Ukraine will only accept a peace that restores its 1991 borders [4][7]. He stresses that any settlement must include concrete, congressional‑approved security guarantees lasting decades before Ukraine can consider elections or further compromises [3][7]. Zelensky also offered to freeze frontlines at current positions but rejected any withdrawal from Donetsk, warning that surrender would “lose everything” for Ukraine [3][4].

Western Support Remains Indirect While Allies Debate Troop Deployments The United States and European nations continue to provide weapons, sanctions, and financial aid but avoid committing ground troops, opting for a war‑of‑attrition strategy [6][3]. Britain’s former prime minister Boris Johnson has called for a multinational “coalition of the willing” to send non‑combat peace‑keeping forces after a ceasefire, arguing it would demonstrate resolve without escalating fighting [8][9]. A Paris summit on 24 February aimed to coordinate aid but produced ambiguous outcomes, reflecting the gap between diplomatic rhetoric and on‑ground realities [6].

Russia Faces Growing Losses, Economic Strain, and Domestic Repression Despite a larger manpower reserve, Russian battlefield losses have risen year‑by‑year, eroding the Kremlin’s strategic position [1][10]. The war has deepened authoritarian control at home, with opposition, independent media, and civil society largely eliminated, and poll figures of public support remain dubious [2]. Russia’s economy is sliding toward stagflation, oil‑gas revenues projected to fall about 30 % in 2026, while the regime continues to pursue maximalist war aims that exceed simple territorial gains [5][10].

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Timeline

Feb 24, 2022 – Russia launches its “special military operation,” invading Ukraine and framing the war as a fight against “fascist” Ukrainian forces, a narrative that persists in Kremlin messaging [27][28].

2021 – The United States and Russia suspend senior‑level military‑to‑military contacts, a channel that remains dormant until early 2026 [4].

Dec 2, 2025 – President Vladimir Putin meets U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow and rejects the U.S.–Ukraine peace proposal, insisting on original war goals [24].

Dec 3, 2025 – NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte warns Putin that the alliance will not retreat, while the same day U.S. envoys hold a five‑hour Moscow meeting that yields no agreement [22].

Dec 4, 2025 – European leaders accuse Putin of feigning interest in peace after a five‑hour Kremlin session with U.S. envoys, noting the lack of any breakthrough [21].

Dec 5, 2025 – The U.S. National Security Strategy criticises NATO allies for “unrealistic expectations” on Ukraine, and Putin announces uninterrupted oil shipments to India despite sanctions [20].

Dec 8, 2025 – Zelensky meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and EU leaders in London, while President Trump claims Zelensky has not read the latest U.S. peace proposal; the Netherlands pledges €700 million in military aid [19].

Dec 8, 2025 – Trump publicly accuses Zelensky of delaying the 28‑point peace plan as Russia launches a massive drone‑and‑missile barrage against Ukrainian cities [18].

Dec 9, 2025 – Ukraine drafts a revised peace plan that explicitly rejects any territorial concessions, planning to present it to the White House by the following Tuesday [17].

Dec 17, 2025 – Putin declares that Russian forces hold the strategic initiative across the entire front line and claims capture of about 300 Ukrainian settlements in 2025 [16].

Dec 18, 2025 – Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev is scheduled for Miami talks on Dec 20, following Berlin meetings on U.S. security guarantees; intensive drone attacks cause casualties on both sides [15].

Dec 20, 2025 – U.S. intelligence reaffirms that Putin’s aims remain the conquest of all Ukraine and parts of former Soviet Europe, while Berlin negotiators outline a broad U.S.‑backed security‑guarantee package for Kyiv [14].

Dec 21, 2025 – Jared Kushner re‑enters diplomacy, joining Witkoff in Miami talks that address both Ukraine and Gaza, while critics raise concerns about his business ties [13].

Dec 26, 2025 – Zelensky announces a forthcoming Florida meeting with President Trump to discuss a 20‑point peace framework that is “about 90 % ready,” and signals willingness to withdraw troops from Donbas if it becomes demilitarised [12].

Dec 27, 2025 – Zelensky outlines a security‑focused agenda with European leaders, unveils a 2040 prosperity roadmap estimating $700‑$800 billion in reconstruction, and reports a fresh Russian drone‑missile assault on Kyiv [11].

Dec 28, 2025 – En route to Florida, Zelensky stops in Canada, briefs EU/NATO allies, and presents a 20‑point freeze plan that would pull Ukrainian forces back to create demilitarised zones [10].

Dec 28, 2025 – Zelensky tells reporters that Russia “doesn’t want peace” ahead of his Florida talks, proposing a Donbas “free economic zone” as a possible compromise [9].

Dec 28, 2025 – Trump states the Ukraine peace deal is “closer than ever” but notes no territorial breakthrough; the revised plan would freeze fighting along current Donbas lines while offering U.S. security guarantees [8].

Jan 23, 2026 – After four‑hour talks in Moscow with U.S. envoys, Russia reaffirms that the war will continue until its territorial goals are met; Zelensky meets Trump in Davos and stresses the need for Russian compromise [7].

Jan 23, 2026 – The first U.S.–Russia–Ukraine trilateral meeting convenes in Abu Dhabi, with Trump pressuring both sides, while the Donbas deadlock remains the primary obstacle [5].

Feb 4‑5, 2026 – GRU chief Igor Kostioukov leads the Russian delegation to Abu Dhabi for the second round of talks, facing Ukrainian representatives Rustem Umerov and Kyrylo Boudanov amid a record Russian missile barrage [30].

Feb 5, 2026 – Senior U.S. and Russian officers resume regular military‑to‑military dialogue on the margins of the Abu Dhabi meeting, aiming to prevent miscalculations and discuss extending the expiring New START treaty [4].

Feb 14, 2026 – Zelensky offers a two‑month ceasefire, elections and security guarantees in exchange for a sustained pause, while NATO reports 35,000 Russian deaths in Dec 2025 and 30,000 in Jan 2026; a Starlink block hampers Russian Rubikon drone strikes [6].

Feb 17‑18, 2026 – Geneva peace talks enter their second day; U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff declares “meaningful progress,” while Zelensky rebukes Trump’s push for Ukrainian compromise and both sides report heavy drone activity [3].

Feb 21, 2026 – Former British prime minister Boris Johnson urges immediate deployment of non‑combat UK troops to Ukraine, arguing it would “flip a switch” in Putin’s mind, while the UK prepares a post‑ceasefire “coalition of the willing” [2].

Feb 22, 2026 – Zelensky tells BBC’s Jeremy Bowen that Putin has already started World War III, rejects land concessions as “abandonment,” and demands 30‑year U.S. security guarantees and licence to produce Western weapons before any election [1].

Feb 24, 2026 – The fourth anniversary of the invasion passes; Western allies convene a Paris summit on Feb 24 to coordinate aid, but outcomes remain uncertain as the conflict stays in a stalemate [29].

Feb 24, 2026 – Russia deepens authoritarian rule four years after the invasion, maintaining the “special military operation” narrative and reporting over 80 % domestic support despite economic strain [27].

Feb 26, 2026 – Analysts warn the war could linger for years, noting that time works against the Kremlin, Russia controls roughly 20 % of Ukraine, and its casualty rate rises despite larger reserves [26].

Feb 27, 2026 – The New START treaty expires on Thursday, creating the first half‑century gap without a binding U.S.–Russia nuclear‑arms framework, while Russia expresses regret and offers to discuss an extension [4].

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