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Ukraine Marks Fourth Invasion Anniversary Amid Stalemate, WWIII Claims, and Calls for Non‑Combat Troops

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  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
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    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026. Source Full size
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  • A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
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    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025 (EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock) Source Full size
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  • The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected
    The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected
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    The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected (Fred Scott/BBC) Source Full size
  • Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025
    Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025
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    Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025 (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    Image: BBC
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  • Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war
    Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war
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    Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026. Source Full size
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  • « Dents de dragon » utilisées par l’armée ukrainienne pour construire des lignes de défense, le long de la route reliant Zaporijia à Pavlohrad, dans la région de Zaporijia (Ukraine), le 22 janvier 2026.JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE »
    « Dents de dragon » utilisées par l’armée ukrainienne pour construire des lignes de défense, le long de la route reliant Zaporijia à Pavlohrad, dans la région de Zaporijia (Ukraine), le 22 janvier 2026.JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE »
    Image: Le Monde
    « Dents de dragon » utilisées par l’armée ukrainienne pour construire des lignes de défense, le long de la route reliant Zaporijia à Pavlohrad, dans la région de Zaporijia (Ukraine), le 22 janvier 2026.JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE » (JEDRZEJ NOWICKI POUR « LE MONDE ») Source Full size
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  • Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS
    Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS
    Image: Le Monde
    Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS (MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS) Source Full size
  • Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP
    Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP
    Image: Le Monde
    Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP (VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP) Source Full size
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  • Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS
    Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS
    Image: Le Monde
    Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS (VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS) Source Full size

War Stagnates at Fifth Year with Minimal Territorial Gains The conflict entered its fifth year in early 2026, with Russia controlling roughly one‑fifth of Ukrainian territory, a share largely secured in the 2022 offensive and only about 1 % added in 2024‑2025 [1][4][5]. Frontlines in the east and south remain largely unchanged, resembling World‑I trench warfare [4]. Zelensky has offered to freeze fighting at current lines but refuses to withdraw from Donetsk, rejecting Russia’s demand for a 20 % territorial concession [3][7]. Both sides continue heavy artillery and drone strikes, exemplified by 126 Russian drones and a ballistic missile hitting Odesa and Zaporizhzhia overnight [4].

Zelensky Calls Conflict World War III and Rejects Concessions In a BBC interview, Zelensky declared that Putin has already started World War III, framing the invasion as a global threat [7]. He reiterated that Ukraine will not cede any part of Donetsk, Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, warning that surrender would “divide Ukrainian society” and embolden further aggression [7][3]. Zelensky demanded that any peace deal include concrete, congressional‑approved security guarantees lasting 30 years and permission for Ukraine to produce Western weapons [3][7]. He also emphasized that restoring Ukraine’s 1991 borders constitutes “justice for the whole world” [7].

Western Allies Hesitate, Emphasize Attrition Over Ground Troops Europe and the United States continue to avoid deploying combat troops, opting for a prolonged war of attrition while supplying arms and sanctions [6]. A Paris summit on 24 February sought to coordinate aid but produced ambiguous outcomes, reflecting the gap between peace rhetoric and battlefield reality [6]. Former British prime minister Boris Johnson urged the UK and allies to send non‑combat peace‑keeping forces after a ceasefire, arguing it would demonstrate commitment without escalating the fight [8][9]. The UK Ministry of Defence confirmed planning for a “coalition of the willing” and highlighted recent £500 million air‑defence and £200 million deployment‑preparation packages [9].

Putin Remains Locked in Maximalist War Aims Despite Economic Strain Intelligence chiefs report that Russia still seeks Zelensky’s removal, Ukrainian neutrality, NATO restructuring, and a pro‑Russian puppet government, making any settlement that omits these demands unacceptable [10]. The Kremlin’s economy is sliding into stagflation, with oil‑gas revenues projected to fall about 30 % in 2026 after a 3.4 % drop in 2025 drilling output [10][5]. Despite these pressures, Putin is portrayed as trapped by his own war logic, unwilling to open a new front while the current invasion exceeds the length of the Soviet “Great Patriotic War” [5][1]. Moscow continues to use bilateral talks as leverage for sanctions relief while maintaining maximalist territorial claims [10].

Ukraine’s Defense Industry Nears Self‑Sufficiency as Aid Continues Ukrainian defense firms have expanded fiftyfold to an estimated $50 billion value, now supplying over half of the country’s military needs [10]. Western assistance, including Sweden’s 12.9 billion SEK package for air‑defence and long‑range drones, underpins this growth [10]. The increased domestic production reduces reliance on foreign arms and strengthens Kyiv’s capacity to sustain the prolonged conflict [10].

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Timeline

2014 – Russia annexes Crimea, a move Boris Johnson later cites as Western hesitation that emboldened Putin and helped trigger the full‑scale war [2].

2021 – The United States and Russia suspend regular senior‑level military‑to‑military contacts, halting a dialogue that had helped manage crises before the invasion [4].

Feb 24, 2022 – Russia launches its “special military operation,” invading Ukraine and later seizing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, marking the start of a conflict that now exceeds the length of the Soviet Great Patriotic War [27][7].

Dec 14, 2025 – President Vladimir Putin demands full territorial gains, a NATO‑non‑expansion clause, and the surrender of the remaining 20 % of Donetsk, signalling Moscow’s maximalist stance as peace talks near a final stage [23].

Dec 15, 2025 – The United States agrees to provide unspecified “Article 5‑like” security guarantees to Ukraine, presenting a draft to the Senate and linking guarantees to a 20‑point peace plan discussed in Berlin [22].

Dec 20, 2025 – Analysts note Russia’s inflation, budget deficit, and shrinking energy revenues, but conclude the economic strain is unlikely to force President Putin into negotiations soon [21].

Dec 21, 2025 – The Kremlin describes recent Abu Dhabi trilateral talks as constructive yet without breakthrough, while Zelensky says a U.S. security‑guarantees document is “100 % ready” pending formal signing [10].

Dec 26, 2025 – Zelensky travels to Florida to meet Donald Trump, stating that each meeting brings Ukraine closer to a peace outcome and that the 20‑point plan is 90 % complete [18][19].

Dec 27, 2025 – Zelensky confirms the Florida meeting with Trump, emphasizing that the discussion will cover a U.S.‑brokered peace plan and separate security guarantees [17].

Dec 30, 2025 – Russia, the United States, and Ukraine claim peace talks are at a final stage, but territorial issues over Donbas and the Zaporizhzhia plant remain potential deal‑breakers [16].

Jan 3, 2026 – European and allied security advisers gather in Kyiv, reviewing a draft security‑guarantee framework and an $800 billion reconstruction package ahead of a Paris summit [15].

Jan 6, 2026 – Zelensky tells reporters in Paris that the territorial question is the biggest obstacle to a peace deal and that the U.S. and Ukraine have discussed “land ideas” to address it [14].

Jan 7, 2026 – Zelensky meets UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at Downing Street, discussing the 20‑point U.S. plan, the “coalition of the willing,” and Russia’s refusal to cede Donbas [25].

Jan 8, 2026 – Russia’s foreign ministry warns that any deployment of Western troops in Ukraine will be treated as “legitimate targets,” responding to a UK‑France declaration to send a multinational force [12].

Jan 21, 2026 – At Davos, Donald Trump reiterates that the U.S. will not seize Greenland and outlines a “framework deal” for Ukraine, while Zelensky and Macron skip the summit, dimming hopes for a three‑way breakthrough [11].

Jan 23, 2026 – The first trilateral Ukraine‑Russia‑U.S. talks occur in Abu Dhabi; Trump pressures both sides, Zelensky praises a recent Davos meeting with Trump, and Ukraine demands U.S. security guarantees and refuses to cede Donbas [5].

Jan 26, 2026 – Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov calls the Abu Dhabi meetings constructive but notes no major agreement, while Zelensky says a U.S. security‑guarantees document is ready for signing and a new trilateral round will follow soon [10].

Feb 4, 2026 – Ukraine’s National Security Council secretary Rustem Umerov calls the Abu Dhabi talks “meaningful and productive,” Russia’s foreign ministry rejects Western troop guarantees, and the U.S. secures a new LNG supply route to Ukraine slated for March 2026 [9].

Feb 4‑5, 2026 – GRU Admiral Igor Kostioukov leads the Russian delegation to Abu Dhabi, meeting Ukrainian officials Rustem Umerov and Kyrylo Boudanov as Russia resumes large‑scale attacks on Ukrainian energy sites during the talks [30].

Feb 5, 2026 – Senior U.S. and Russian officers re‑establish regular senior‑level military‑to‑military dialogue on the margins of the Abu Dhabi meetings, aiming to extend the expiring New START treaty and reduce miscalculation risks [4].

Feb 14, 2026 – Zelensky offers a two‑month ceasefire, early elections, and demands 30‑year U.S. security guarantees before any territorial concession, while Russia reports heavy casualties and Starlink disruptions hinder its drone operations [8].

Feb 16, 2026 – The U.S.-brokered Geneva peace talks begin, with Russia’s expanded delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky and Ukraine’s team traveling by train; both sides refuse major concessions on borders and discuss a “free economic zone” in Donbas [7].

Feb 18, 2026 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff declares “meaningful progress” in the first day of Geneva negotiations, praising President Trump’s role, while Zelensky rebukes Trump’s push for Ukrainian compromise and both sides report heavy drone activity [3].

Feb 19, 2026 – Geneva talks end after two hours; Russia swaps its delegation leadership, prepares limited rolling‑reserve call‑ups, and the State Duma advances a bill targeting “evading duty to defend the Fatherland,” while Ukraine offers troop withdrawals contingent on reciprocal Russian pull‑back [6].

Feb 21, 2026 – Former UK prime minister Boris Johnson urges immediate deployment of non‑combat peace‑keeping troops to Ukraine after a ceasefire, proposing a “coalition of the willing” contingent, and warns that earlier Western hesitation emboldened Putin [2].

Feb 22, 2026 – Zelensky tells BBC’s Jeremy Bowen that Putin has already started World War III, demands intense military and economic pressure on Moscow, rejects land concessions as abandonment, and insists on 30‑year U.S. guarantees and licences to produce Western weapons before any election [1].

Feb 24, 2026 – Western allies convene in Paris for a summit intended to coordinate aid and security guarantees; the meeting aims to finalize a multinational force and long‑term support but leaves the outcome uncertain as the war marks its fourth anniversary [29].

Feb 26, 2026 – Analysts warn the conflict could linger for years, noting Russia controls about 20 % of Ukraine, its incremental gains are minimal, and rising casualties increasingly work against the Kremlin’s strategic position [26].

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