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United States and Iran Weigh Second Nuclear Negotiation Round After June War and Protest Crackdown

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  • The US negotiators will be led by special envoy Steve Witkoff (left), while the Iranian team is headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
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  • The US negotiators will be led by special envoy Steve Witkoff (left), while the Iranian team is headed by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
    Image: BBC
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  • Un bâtiment précédemment détruit, avec maintenant un nouveau toit, sur le site nucléaire d’Ispahan (Iran), sur une image satellite prise le 1ᵉʳ février 2026.PLANET LABS PBC VIA REUTERS
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    Un bâtiment précédemment détruit, avec maintenant un nouveau toit, sur le site nucléaire d’Ispahan (Iran), sur une image satellite prise le 1ᵉʳ février 2026.PLANET LABS PBC VIA REUTERS (PLANET LABS PBC VIA REUTERS) Source Full size
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  • Le ministre des affaires étrangères iranien, Abbas Araghtchi, avant des négociations avec les Etats-Unis, à Mascate (Oman), le 25 avril 2025.MINISTÈRE IRANIEN DES AFFAIRES ÉTRANGÈRES VIA REUTERS
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    Le ministre des affaires étrangères iranien, Abbas Araghtchi, avant des négociations avec les Etats-Unis, à Mascate (Oman), le 25 avril 2025.MINISTÈRE IRANIEN DES AFFAIRES ÉTRANGÈRES VIA REUTERS (MINISTÈRE IRANIEN DES AFFAIRES ÉTRANGÈRES VIA REUTERS) Source Full size

Talks Convened in Muscat Under Omani Mediation On Friday 5 February 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Muscat, with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi facilitating the first formal nuclear‑focused dialogue since the June 2025 Israel‑Iran war [2][3][4]. The Omani government hosted face‑to‑face sessions that both sides described as “useful to clarify positions” and a “good beginning” for further consultations [3][4]. Iran’s chief diplomat emphasized a calm, threat‑free atmosphere, while the United States signaled willingness to resume talks as early as the following week [2][5].

U.S. Leverages Military Pressure While Proposing Broader Agenda The United States deployed the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying warships to the Arabian Sea, with Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper attending the Muscat talks in dress uniform to underscore the parallel military posture [2][6][7]. Washington announced fresh sanctions targeting 14 oil tankers, 15 trading firms and two executives, and issued an executive order authorizing a potential 25 % import tax on goods from countries buying Iranian oil [2]. Beyond the nuclear issue, U.S. officials—including Secretary of State Marco Rubio—pressed for limits on Iran’s ballistic‑missile program, its support for regional militant groups, and human‑rights improvements [3][5][7][8].

Iran’s Nuclear Position: Halted Enrichment Yet Large 60 % Stockpile After the June 2025 attacks on its nuclear facilities, Tehran announced a halt to uranium enrichment, but the International Atomic Energy Agency still reports a stockpile of roughly 9,870 kg of highly enriched uranium, with portions enriched to 60 %—a short step from weapons‑grade material [1][2]. IAEA inspectors have been barred from key sites for months, limiting verification of Iran’s compliance [1][2]. Iranian negotiators indicated willingness to consider a regional enrichment consortium and to transfer about 400 kg of HEU to a third country, while rejecting any demand to curb its ballistic‑missile program as a violation of sovereignty [3][4].

Political Context: Post‑June War Tensions, Protest Crackdown, and Trump’s Domestic Pressures The talks occur against the backdrop of Israel’s 12‑day war with Iran in June 2025, subsequent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and a nationwide protest crackdown that killed thousands (estimates range from 6,941 to 30,000) and led to over 50,000 arrests [3][4][6][7][8]. President Donald Trump warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to be “very worried” and framed the Muscat meeting as Iran’s “last chance,” while also describing the discussions as “very good” on Air Force One [6][7][8]. Domestic pressure mounts as Trump’s approval rating fell below 40 %, raising concerns that a failed diplomatic outcome could further damage his political standing ahead of the midterm elections [5].

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Timeline

Dec 12, 2025 – President Donald Trump warns that the United States will strike any new Iranian nuclear facility if Tehran attempts to restart its program, citing the June 2025 U.S.–Israeli strikes that destroyed key enrichment sites [25].

Dec 22, 2025 – Iran’s foreign ministry declares its ballistic‑missile programme “defensive and non‑negotiable,” insisting the arsenal deters aggression and will not be discussed in any future talks [27].

Dec 28, 2025 – President Masoud Pezeshkian tells a supreme‑leader interview that Iran is in a full‑scale war with the United States, Israel and Europe, comparing the conflict to the 1980‑88 Iran‑Iraq war and noting a stronger military than during the earlier Israel‑Iran clash [24][26].

Dec 29, 2025 – Iran’s military vows to crush its enemies after the president publicly declares war on the United States, aligning the armed forces with the leadership’s war rhetoric [23].

Dec 30, 2025 – Iran’s armed forces spokesman Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi warns that any aggression toward Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei will trigger a harsh response, while Trump reiterates the prospect of renewed military action during a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu [22].

Jan 3, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social that the United States is “locked and loaded” and ready to intervene if Iran harms peaceful protesters; Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani demands condemnation of the threats at the United Nations [20][21].

Jan 12, 2026 – Trump announces a 25 % tariff on any country doing business with Iran, declaring the measure effective immediately and framing it as part of a hardline stance amid the Iranian crackdown [28].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump tells reporters Iran wants to negotiate, while Omani foreign minister visits Tehran to keep diplomatic channels open; Iran simultaneously signals readiness for war, vows retaliation against any U.S. attack, and stresses that its missile programme will not be limited in talks [18][19][17].

Jan 14, 2026 – Trump weighs limited strikes versus a full regime‑change campaign, saying the United States has “very strong options” and urging action to support Iranian protesters, while former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta argues U.S. credibility requires a visible response [14][15].

Jan 15, 2026 – Analysts note that U.S. weapons stockpiles are depleted but still potent, and report that Trump has ordered military assets to be prepared for a potential strike against Iran [13].

Jan 17, 2026 – Trump urges “new leadership” in Iran, calling the Supreme Leader a “sick man” and encouraging protesters to keep demonstrating, while Israeli intelligence chief Shlomi Binder meets U.S. officials to discuss possible strike targets inside Iran [12][3].

Jan 19, 2026 – Iran’s president warns that any aggression against the Supreme Leader will trigger a full‑scale war, and Khamenei cautions that “criminals” will be punished, as Trump publicly calls for regime change and hints at possible strikes [11].

Jan 20‑21, 2026 – Iran’s armed forces warn that attacks on Khamenei will meet “strong retaliation,” while Trump announces the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is moving westward toward the region, signaling a naval buildup amid the protest crackdown [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi states that Tehran has not requested negotiations with the United States, urging Washington to stop threatening war if it wants diplomatic engagement [9].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump demands that Iran cease nuclear weapons development and stop killing protesters “by the thousands” or face a “massive Armada,” and later claims Iran prefers a deal over war, while Iran’s foreign minister repeats that missile‑defence systems are off‑limits in any talks [4][5].

Feb 2, 2026 – President Masoud Pezeshkian orders the start of nuclear negotiations with the United States, announcing that a negotiation framework will be ready in the coming days [8].

Feb 3, 2026 – President Pezeshkian says Iran will negotiate only in a “threat‑free” environment and instructs Foreign Minister Araghchi to pursue talks under those conditions; media report a possible Istanbul meeting on Friday with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and regional foreign ministers [2][7].

Feb 4, 2026 – In an NBC interview, Trump warns Ayatollah Khamenei that the United States is aware of Iran’s plans to open a new nuclear site and threatens “very hard” retaliation ahead of the upcoming Oman talks [30].

Feb 5, 2026 – Trump tells NBC that Khamenei “should be very worried,” while Iran showcases the long‑range Khorramshahr‑4 missile and vows swift retaliation to any U.S. attack; both sides prepare for the Muscat meeting scheduled for Friday [6][30].

Feb 6, 2026 – Iranian and U.S. delegations meet in Muscat, Oman, launching final nuclear discussions; the United States seeks to add ballistic‑missile limits, regional influence, and human‑rights issues to the agenda, whereas Iran insists the talks remain “exclusively nuclear” [1][29].

Future (as of Feb 6, 2026) – If the Muscat talks fail, regional ministers from Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to convene in Istanbul for a follow‑up session, according to U.S. diplomatic sources [2].

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