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Fourth Anniversary Marks Stalemate as Zelensky Rejects Concessions and Russia Tightens Authoritarian Grip

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  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026. Source Full size
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  • President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    Image: Newsweek
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. Source Full size
  • The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff.
    The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff.
    Image: BBC
    The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff. (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
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  • The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected
    The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected
    Image: BBC
    The government enclave in Kyiv is heavily-protected (Fred Scott/BBC) Source Full size
  • Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025
    Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025
    Image: BBC
    Trump publicly berated Zelensky at the White House in February 2025 (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025
    Image: BBC
    A Ukranian soldier walks near a home destroyed by Russian troops in Kharkiv in Janaury 2025 (EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock) Source Full size
  • Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war
    Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war
    Image: BBC
    Johnson believes almost a decade of foreign policy mistakes led to the Ukraine war (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff.
    The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff.
    Image: BBC
    The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Switzerland are being mediated by Steve Witkoff. (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (back) speaks during an interview in Kyiv on Feb. 19, 2026. Source Full size
  • President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.
    Image: Newsweek
    President Donald Trump greets Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago club, Sunday, Dec. 28, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla. Source Full size
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  • Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS
    Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS
    Image: Le Monde
    Le président russe, Vladimir Poutine, lors de la Journée des défenseurs de la patrie, devant la tombe du soldat inconnu, à Moscou, le 23 février 2026.MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS (MAXIM SHIPENKOV VIA REUTERS) Source Full size
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  • Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP
    Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP
    Image: Le Monde
    Vladimir Poutine, lors d’une réunion du Conseil de sécurité, à Moscou, le 20 février 2026.VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP (VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/AP) Source Full size
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  • Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS
    Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS
    Image: Le Monde
    Après une frappe russe, dans la région de Kiev, le 22 février 2026.VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS (VALENTYN OGIRENKO/REUTERS) Source Full size

War Duration and Frontline Stalemate The “special military operation” launched on 24 February 2022 has now outlasted the Soviet Great Patriotic War, entering its fifth year with frontlines largely unchanged and Russia controlling roughly one‑fifth of Ukrainian territory [1][3][4][6]. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky insists on restoring the 1991 borders and refuses to cede any part of Donetsk, labeling any concession as abandonment of the nation [2][6][11]. Zelensky has repeatedly warned that the conflict amounts to World War III, emphasizing that a settlement must prevent further aggression [3][6].

Zelensky’s Diplomatic Demands and US Pressure In speeches and interviews around the anniversary, Zelensky urged President Donald Trump to maintain U.S. support, calling the United States “far too big and too important to walk away” [2]. He rejected Trump’s push for rapid concessions, demanding 30‑year security guarantees from the United States and a freeze of frontlines at current contact lines before any peace deal [6][11][12]. Zelensky also warned that yielding to Russian demands would force Ukrainians to become Russian and jeopardize the nation’s future [2][13].

Geneva Negotiations Stalled Amid Maximalist Demands The third round of Geneva talks on 18‑19 February ended without breakthrough; Russia’s delegation, led by Vladimir Medinsky, reiterated maximalist goals including Ukrainian neutrality, NATO non‑expansion and removal of Zelensky [10][13]. Ukraine offered reciprocal troop pull‑backs and elections but insisted Russia match any concession, a condition Moscow rejected [10][11]. Intelligence chiefs reported that Moscow still seeks a pro‑Russian puppet government and full control of Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, underscoring the gap between sides [9][13].

Russia’s Domestic Repression and Economic Strain Four years after the invasion, Russia has deepened authoritarian rule: opposition parties, independent media and civil society are effectively eliminated, and the Levada Center reports over 80 % public support for the war, a figure questioned due to fear‑based polling [1][4]. The economy, once buoyed by wartime production, is now sliding into stagflation with oil‑gas revenues projected to fall about 30 % in 2026, while recruitment difficulties persist without a general mobilization [4][9]. Analysts describe Putin as trapped by his own war logic, unable to pursue new offensives without risking regime legitimacy [4][5].

Western Allies’ Limited Military Commitment Europe and the United States continue to avoid deploying ground troops, opting for a prolonged attrition strategy that leaves Ukraine bearing the frontline burden [5]. The United Kingdom, led by former prime minister Boris Johnson, has advocated sending non‑combat peace‑keeping forces after a ceasefire, coordinating a “coalition of the willing” and allocating new defence aid packages [7][8]. Sanctions and Russia’s recruitment woes remain the primary tools Western policymakers hope will weaken Moscow, though concrete strategic options remain indecisive [5][9].

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Timeline

Feb 24, 2022 – Russia launches a full‑scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the start of a war that later exceeds the length of the Soviet “Great Patriotic War” and becomes the central backdrop for all subsequent diplomatic efforts [27][28].

Nov 30, 2025 – President Donald Trump declares optimism after the Florida‑Miami talks, saying the meeting “will move the peace process forward,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns that “more work is needed” on Russia’s role and remaining issues [25].

Dec 2, 2025 – President Vladimir Putin rejects the U.S.‑Ukraine peace proposal, refusing any compromise short of his original war goals and ending the Moscow meeting without an agreement [26].

Dec 3, 2025 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian adviser Yuri Ushakov hold a five‑hour discussion described as “useful and constructive,” yet they fail to reach a breakthrough on territorial compromises [24].

Dec 4, 2025 – In an interview, Putin claims the war “protects Russian interests and values,” blames the West for “egging Ukraine on,” and reiterates that NATO expansion is unacceptable [23].

Dec 7, 2025 – Donald Trump Jr. tells the Doha Forum that his father “may walk away from Ukraine” as peace talks stall, reflecting growing frustration in the U.S. [21].

Dec 7, 2025 – The three‑day Miami talks conclude with “difficult issues” on territory and security guarantees still unresolved, and both sides acknowledge that further work is required [22].

Dec 10, 2025 – Kyiv announces it will hand its latest peace proposals to U.S. negotiators, aiming to secure a “fair settlement” and deter future Russian attacks [20].

Dec 11, 2025 – Zelensky schedules a video‑conference with about 30 allied leaders, urging them to press for “fair terms” while Trump pushes for a rapid settlement that would cede territory to Russia [19].

Dec 18, 2025 – Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev plans a Miami meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, following Berlin talks that set the agenda on security guarantees and territorial concessions [18].

Dec 19, 2025 – Zelensky visits Warsaw, where Polish President Karol Nawrocki stresses “symmetry” in the partnership and highlights Poland’s role in any future Western security guarantees for Ukraine [17].

Dec 20, 2025 – Speaking in Kyiv, Zelensky urges the United States to increase pressure on Moscow, insisting that only Washington can “push Russia toward negotiations” and calling for more arms and sanctions [16].

Dec 21, 2025 – Jared Kushner re‑enters diplomacy, co‑leading Miami talks with Witkoff on Ukraine and Gaza, while U.S. officials describe the sessions as “constructive” and note progress on aligning European and American positions [14][15].

Dec 28, 2025 – Zelensky pauses in Canada, rallies EU and NATO allies for support, and outlines a 20‑point “freeze” plan for talks with Trump; meanwhile Russia bombards Kyiv with roughly 500 drones and 40 missiles, killing two and cutting power for over a million residents [13].

Jan 8, 2026 – Zelensky announces that the bilateral U.S. security‑guarantees document is “essentially ready” after Paris talks, linking its finalisation to Washington’s engagement with Moscow [12].

Jan 22, 2026 – In Davos, Zelensky tells reporters the guarantees “will be signed by the presidents before going to parliament” and will take effect only after the war ends, invoking the failed 1994 Budapest Memorandum [10].

Jan 22, 2026 – Steve Witkoff says the war hinges on “one issue,” praising Ukraine’s negotiating team while noting Russia’s demand for the Donbas [11].

Jan 23, 2026 – Ukrainian, U.S., and Russian delegations hold the first trilateral security talks in Abu Dhabi, launching a working group on security issues and signaling a formal step toward a three‑way settlement [9].

Jan 23, 2026 – The Abu Dhabi trilateral meeting yields “limited progress” as Russia maintains its demand for a large portion of Donbas, while Kyiv stresses that any agreement must respect Ukraine’s borders [5].

Jan 25, 2026 – Zelensky declares the U.S. security‑guarantees text “100 % ready,” awaiting a signing date and parliamentary ratification, and links EU membership by 2027 to an “economic security guarantee” [8].

Feb 4, 2026 – GRU chief Admiral Igor Kostioukov leads the Russian delegation to Abu Dhabi for a second round of talks, meeting Ukrainian officials Rustem Umerov and Kyrylo Boudanov amid intensified Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian energy sites [30].

Feb 5, 2026 – Senior U.S. and Russian officers resume regular military‑to‑military dialogue, aiming to “provide consistent contact as the parties work towards a lasting peace” and to discuss extending the expiring New START treaty [4].

Feb 9, 2026 – Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov blames the United States for stalling peace talks, accusing it of “breaking peace proposals” from the August 2025 Alaska Summit and reiterating Russian demands for control over Ukraine’s post‑war government and demilitarisation [7].

Feb 16, 2026 – Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin repeats Russia’s 2025 UN‑administration proposal for Ukraine, while Zelensky meets U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and seeks a 15‑year (ideally 20‑year) security guarantee before any settlement [6].

Feb 18, 2026 – U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff declares “meaningful progress” in the first day of Geneva negotiations, praising President Trump’s role and urging continuation, as both sides report heavy drone activity during the talks [3].

Feb 21, 2026 – Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson urges the immediate deployment of non‑combat UK troops to Ukraine, arguing it would “flip a switch” in Putin’s mind, while the UK prepares a post‑war coalition contingent tied to a ceasefire [2].

Feb 22, 2026 – In a BBC interview, Zelensky states “Putin has already started World War III,” rejects Putin’s demand for Ukraine to cede 20 % of Donetsk and other territories, and demands “30‑year guarantees” and licence to produce Western weapons before any concessions [1].

Feb 23, 2026 – Analysts note that Western allies “favor a war of attrition over a ceasefire,” as the fourth anniversary of the invasion highlights a stalemate and a Paris summit seeks to coordinate aid amid uncertainty [29].

Feb 23, 2026 – Commentary argues Putin is “trapped” by his own war logic, noting his expectation that a Trump presidency would deliver a swift peace deal, yet maximalist Russian demands remain unchanged [28].

Feb 24, 2026 – Four years after the invasion, Russia entrenches authoritarian rule, with the “special military operation” now exceeding the length of the Great Patriotic War, while official polls claim over 80 % domestic support despite repression [27].

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